Updated October 2026. This article looks at commercial property in the Texas growth corridor between San Antonio and Austin, which we take to mean north Bexar, Comal, Hays and Guadalupe counties. It is for owners, small investors and business owners deciding whether to buy, build or lease here.
The quick answers
- Is the corridor still growing? Yes, at a steady but slower pace. In the Census estimate for July 2025, Comal County grew about 3.8 percent in a year, Hays about 3.4 percent and Guadalupe about 2.8 percent. The U.S. grew about 0.5 percent.
- Where are interest rates? The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on September 16, 2026.
- Is empty industrial space being absorbed quickly? Only in part. Comal County industrial was about 12.0 percent empty in September 2026, down from about 12.5 percent a year earlier. Hays County rose to about 18.2 percent.
- Is retail still tight? Yes in Comal County (about 2.4 percent empty). Hays and Guadalupe counties are looser than a year ago, with a lot of new space under construction.
- Are apartments a bargain right now? Rents were falling in September 2026. Comal County apartments were about 16.0 percent empty and rents were down about 3.6 percent in a year. Lower rents help tenants. They are not a signal that prices will rise.
- Is any of this a sure thing? No. Nobody can promise that a county will fill up or that a building will pay off. Check the specific property.
What changed in this update
Interest rates went up instead of down. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on September 16, 2026, and the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24 percent on October 9, 2026. Industrial construction in Comal County is also large: as of September 2026, about 770,000 square feet was under construction, and about 840,000 square feet had started in the last twelve months.
What it means for you. Be careful with any claim that a place is a “sure bet.” Look at the numbers for the property type you care about.
People and jobs: growing, with limits
People are the reason anyone builds here. The latest Census estimates (released March 26, 2026, for July 1, 2025) show strong growth.
| Area | Population growth, July 2024 to July 2025 | People added |
|---|---|---|
| Comal County | about 3.8 percent | about 7,700 |
| Hays County | about 3.4 percent | about 10,100 |
| Guadalupe County | about 2.8 percent | about 5,400 |
| San Antonio metro area | about 1.4 percent | about 38,400 |
| Austin metro area | about 2.1 percent | about 53,800 |
U.S. Census Bureau county and metro estimates, released March 26, 2026. Percentages are our own calculations from the published populations. For comparison, Texas grew about 1.2 percent and the U.S. about 0.5 percent.
Two cautions. First, these are past estimates, not forecasts. Second, the pace has slowed. Texas net domestic migration, which is people moving in from other states minus people moving out, fell from about 189,000 in 2023 to about 67,000 in 2025, according to the Census Bureau.
Jobs are growing, but modestly. Preliminary August 2026 figures show payroll jobs up about 1.2 percent in the Austin area and about 0.5 percent in the San Antonio area. Unemployment was about 3.9 percent in the Austin area and about 4.5 percent in the San Antonio area. We do not have a current county-level unemployment figure.
The location is the draw: the area sits between two metros, Austin and San Antonio. The two metros also differ. Hays County follows the Austin market. Comal and Guadalupe counties follow San Antonio.
What it means for you. More people means more customers, tenants and workers. It does not mean every property type fills up. Slower in-migration also means the extra supply now being built has fewer new arrivals to absorb it.
Four counties compared, September 2026
This table puts the four counties side by side for each property type. “Empty” means the share of space not leased. All figures are from brokerage market data through September 30, 2026. The Bexar County column uses the whole San Antonio market, because our data does not split out north Bexar County.
| Property type | Comal | Hays | Guadalupe | San Antonio market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial, share empty | 12.0% | 18.2% | 5.95% | 10.7% |
| Retail, share empty | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% |
| Office, share empty | 3.9% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 10.1% |
| Apartments, share empty | 16.0% | not in our data | 13.2% | 14.9% |
Between September 2025 and September 2026, Comal County vacancy fell in all four property types. Hays County moved the other way: industrial went from about 12.0 percent empty a year ago to about 18.2 percent now, and retail from about 1.6 percent to about 2.6 percent.
What it means for you. A corridor-wide average hides big differences. Hays County industrial space and Guadalupe County industrial space are in different situations. Use the county report that matches your deal: Comal, Hays, Guadalupe and San Antonio.
Industrial: more space, mixed results
Industrial space is where the corridor has added the most square feet, and the results differ by county.
Comal County
About 12.0 percent of industrial space was empty in September 2026, compared with about 12.5 percent a year earlier. Tenants took more space than they gave back. Net absorption, meaning space leased minus space vacated, was about 670,000 square feet over twelve months. Asking rent was about $0.91 per square foot per month, up about 2.4 percent in a year.
Building has not stopped, though. About 770,000 square feet was under construction. That is about 3.4 percent of the county’s existing industrial space. A baseline outlook from our market data has Comal County industrial at about 11.7 percent empty at the end of 2026. That is one outlook, not a prediction.
Hays County
This is where the extra supply shows most. About 2.2 million square feet opened in the last twelve months, and about 1.1 million more was under construction. Vacancy rose to about 18.2 percent. Rents were about $1.04 per square foot per month, up about 1.4 percent. A tenant here has a lot of choice. An owner with a vacant building has competition.
Guadalupe County
Vacancy was lower, about 5.95 percent, but it rose from about 4.3 percent a year earlier, and tenants gave back more space than they took in over twelve months. About 560,000 square feet was under construction, and only about 91,000 square feet had opened in the last year. Much of that new space has not yet reached the market.
Small-bay and flex space
Smaller buildings for contractors and local shops behave differently from big warehouses. We cover them in our guide to small-bay and flex space.
What it means for you. If you are a tenant, Hays County gives you room to negotiate. If you are a buyer, ask how much new space is being built within a few miles of the building you like. The county average cannot tell you that.
Retail: tight, with new space coming
Retail follows the rooftops. Shops follow new homes, and necessity retail, such as grocery and services, is the steady part. The numbers show a tight market.
- Comal County: about 2.4 percent empty, asking rent about $2.11 per square foot per month, up about 4.6 percent in a year. About 69,000 square feet was under construction.
- Hays County: about 2.6 percent empty, up from about 1.6 percent a year ago. Rent was about $2.61, up about 1.2 percent. About 350,000 square feet was under construction, about 2.6 percent of the county’s existing retail space.
- Guadalupe County: about 2.9 percent empty, up from about 1.8 percent. Rent was about $1.90, up about 4.4 percent. About 240,000 square feet was under construction.
- San Antonio market: about 4.0 percent empty, rent about $2.02.
A baseline outlook has Comal County retail at about 2.3 percent empty at the end of 2026. It has Hays County rising to about 3.2 percent.
Rent growth is solid in Comal and Guadalupe counties and weak in Hays County, where a lot of new space is being built.
What it means for you. Low vacancy means tenants have fewer choices, and a small business may find it hard to find a space. Read the market reports for Comal and Hays before you sign.
Office: small markets, small numbers
Suburban office here is a small market that is mostly full.
- Comal County: about 3.9 percent empty, down from about 4.7 percent. Rent was about $2.95 per square foot per month, up about 0.8 percent. Almost no office space was delivered in the last year, yet about 233,000 square feet was under construction. That is about 6.8 percent of the county’s existing office space, so one project can change the picture. A baseline outlook has vacancy rising to about 5.8 percent by the end of 2026.
- Hays County: about 7.1 percent empty, up from about 6.6 percent. Rent was about $2.87.
- Guadalupe County: about 2.6 percent empty and about $2.37 rent. The market is only about 1.5 million square feet in total.
- San Antonio market: about 10.1 percent empty, which is far looser than the three counties.
What it means for you. A tenant in a small suburban market has few choices. An owner of one of those buildings has very little room for error. Our Comal County office report shows the detail.
Apartments: lower rents, high vacancy
Apartment rents were falling in September 2026, and nobody can promise where they go next.
Here is what the numbers show. Comal County apartments were about 16.0 percent empty in September 2026, down from about 23.1 percent a year earlier, which is a real improvement. Average asking rent was about $1,392 per unit per month, down about 3.6 percent. Guadalupe County was about 13.2 percent empty, down from about 18.8 percent, with rent about $1,313 per month, down about 2.7 percent. The San Antonio market was about 14.9 percent empty with rent about $1,245, down about 1.9 percent.
About 850 units opened in Comal County in the last twelve months, and about 300 were under construction. A baseline outlook has Comal vacancy easing to about 15.3 percent by the end of 2026. Our data set does not include Hays County apartments.
What it means for you. If you rent, the market is working in your favor. If you own, the first job is to keep units full at lower rents. Ask your lender how they view any building with this much vacancy. See the Comal and Guadalupe apartment reports.
Roads, water and money
Public projects matter to the corridor, but their dates move.
- Loop 1604 North. The Texas Department of Transportation page now lists different completion years for some segments than TxDOT’s 2024 newsletter did, so the schedule is not firm.
- US 281 at SH 46 in Bulverde. TxDOT estimated completion in winter 2026 as of October 2026. For the wider picture, see our Highway 281 article.
- I-35 NEX South. TxDOT estimates the first phase for late 2028.
- Water. Canyon Lake was about 97.7 percent full on October 11, 2026, while the Edwards Aquifer San Antonio pool was in Stage 3 restrictions on October 10. Water supply differs by provider and parcel. Our Hill Country water guide explains how to check.
- Money. Loan costs shape what buyers can pay. Our guide to commercial property loans explains the options.
What it means for you. A road under construction can help a site later and hurt it now. Ask for the current schedule from the agency, not from a news story.
How to look at a corridor deal
- Pick the property type first. Industrial, retail, office and apartments are four different markets here.
- Use the county, then the street. The table above is a start. The next step is the buildings within a few miles.
- Count what is under construction. Compare it with the size of the market, as we did above.
- Test the deal at today’s loan rates. Do not assume rates will fall.
- Get water and power in writing. Ask the actual provider.
- Ask your CPA, lawyer and lender. They give the tax, legal and financing advice. We do not.
Common questions
What is the Texas growth corridor?
It is our name for the area between San Antonio and Austin along I-35, covering north Bexar, Comal, Hays and Guadalupe counties. It is not an official designation.
Is the corridor a good place to invest in 2026?
It depends on the property type, the county and the price. Population is growing. Financing is costly. Some property types have a lot of new space coming. A particular building can still be a good or a poor choice.
Is high vacancy a buying opportunity?
Sometimes. It can give buyers more bargaining room. It can also mean there is more space than tenants. Look at how long units have been empty and what is being built nearby.
Which county has the least empty space?
It depends on the type. As of September 2026, Guadalupe County had the lowest industrial and office vacancy, and Comal County had the lowest retail vacancy.
Where do these numbers come from?
Property figures are from brokerage market data through September 30, 2026. Population, jobs, rates and road dates come from the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve and TxDOT. They are dated where they appear.
The bottom line
The corridor is still one of the faster-growing parts of Texas. That is a fact about people, and it is a good reason to take the area seriously.
It is not a sure thing. Growth has slowed, rates went up instead of down, and developers have built or started a lot of industrial, retail and office space. Comal County looks tighter than Hays County. Apartments are cheaper to rent than a year ago. Your result will depend on the building, the price and the loan.
At Blue Collar Commercial Group, we help owners, buyers and tenants compare specific properties in Comal, Hays, Guadalupe and north Bexar counties. Contact our team to talk it through.
First published October 2025. Rewritten October 2026 with current figures. Property figures come from brokerage market data through September 30, 2026 and are rounded. Population, jobs, rate and road figures come from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury and the Texas Department of Transportation, as dated above. This article is general information. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice.
